By Emily GreenhousePosted March 12, 2018 12:37amThe Republican health care legislation passed the House in a party-line vote and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it into law soon.
But how will the GOP overhaul health care in the near term?
A number of things are at play, including how the legislation will impact Medicaid.
Here’s a look at what to expect, and how the bill may affect Medicaid.
How much money will the Medicaid program get?
The House Republican health plan does not include any specific amounts for Medicaid, but a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office analysis found that it would increase the federal deficit by $337 billion over a decade.
CBO says that Medicaid would receive $4,836 billion more over that same period, but that would come from a reduction in federal spending by $11.5 billion, not a reduction.
The CBO says the federal government would also pay about $9 billion more for enrollees who would have qualified for Medicaid under the bill.
CBO estimated that, in 2019, Medicaid enrollees would earn $14,967 per year, or $5,921 per month, compared to $9,726 per month under current law.
The nonpartisan Congressional Policy Center, which also reviewed the House GOP plan, says the GOP bill would increase Medicaid costs by about $2,200 per enrollee per year.
But the CBO said that would be offset by cuts to the federal workforce and federal subsidies for enrollee-dependent family planning services.
The Congressional Budget Committee also projects that the GOP plan would decrease federal Medicaid spending by about 2 percent a year over the next decade.
But CBO said Medicaid would get an additional $1,000 per enrolle per year under the GOP proposal, offset by a reduction to the Federal Disability Insurance program.
The bill also calls for a reduction of the number of Medicaid beneficiaries to 138,000 by 2026 from the current 138,096, but CBO projects that this would not be enough to cover the increased costs.
The GOP proposal does not propose to eliminate the current Medicaid program.
But its Medicaid cuts would have a greater impact on low-income people.
CBO said the Medicaid cuts, which would amount to about $3.4 billion in 2019 and $3 billion in 2020, would reduce Medicaid spending per enroller by $2.8 billion per year in 2020 compared to the current $3,200 and $4.2 billion in 2021, respectively.
The CBO also said that in 2021 and 2022, Medicaid spending would be reduced by $1.7 billion in the first year, $2 billion the second year and $2 million in the third year.
Under the GOP’s plan, Medicaid would be phased out gradually over a five-year period beginning in 2020.
That would mean that by 2022, about 22 million low- and moderate-income adults would be enrolled in Medicaid, down from 25 million in 2020 and 26 million in 2021.
That is less than half of the current number.
A CBO report released in January estimated that the House Republican plan would reduce the Medicaid population by about 17 million people over a ten-year span from 2020 through 2026.
But, the CBO noted that Medicaid beneficiaries in 2020 would have the same number of children and grandchildren as they did in 2021 under the House bill.
That could mean that Medicaid enrollee growth would continue to slow.
The Senate is expected next week to begin a debate over the House health care proposal.
Republicans hope to pass a version of the bill by Thanksgiving.